(Well in Advance) Oscar Predix !!

Okay, here we are eight (plus) months away from the actual nominations and I cannot wait any longer.  Many of the following nominations will be wrong - I know that already.  Either certain films will open more poorly than expected or a certain actor or actress won't get the buzz one was hoping for (or maybe someone we expected to go lead ends up going supporting - or vice versa) or perhaps a film or two will be postponed til 2012 (almost never a good sign of a good film).  Anyway, ready or not (and correct or not), here are my advance predictions for the eventual 2011 Academy Awards.

Best Picture

• War Horse
• Hugo Cabret
• The Tree of Life
• J. Edgar
• The Descendants
• Carnage
• We Bought A Zoo
• The Help
• The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
• Super 8

I think the top three are sure nominees (even this early), especially number one (being a Spielberg war movie), but any of the rest could fall.  Other possibilities are Take This Waltz, A Dangerous Method, My Week With Marilyn, Moneyball, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Albert Nobbs, Contagion, Larry Crowne, The Iron Lady, Rampart & On The Road.  I would like to put Meek's Cutoff in there too, but that is more of a pipe dream than a realistic prediction.

Best Director

• Steven Spielberg (War Horse)
• Martin Scorsese (Hugo Cabret)
• Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
• Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar)
• Alexander Payne (The Descendants)

That last one is pretty much a blind lob toward the plate but the other (at least now) seem very viable - and it is probably about time to see some Oscar love toward Mr. Malick.  Of course there is probably one relatively unknown director (see last year and Tom Hooper) who will end up popping up here somewhere.  Other possibilities are Steven Soderbergh (Contagion - if it gets a BP nod that is), Cameron Crowe (We Bought A Zoo) and even David Cronenberg (A Dangerous Method - Again, if it gets a BP nod) and/or Roman Polanski (Carnage).  Polanski is actually probably a strong bet (even with his so-called stigma) if the film is released in 2011 (which is still debatable at this point). And let's not count out J.J. Abrams for Super 8.

Best Actor

• Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)
• George Clooney (The Descendants)
• Tom Hanks (Larry Crowne)
• Brad Pitt (The Tree of Life)
• Michael Fassbender (A Dangerous Method)

That last one may be the so-called wild card on my list but Fassbender is on the verge of big time stardom, so why not start now.  As for Mr. Pitt, his role could go supporting here, or be replaced by costar Sean Penn.  If this happens then I would put Ryan Gosling in for Ides of March or possibly Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (of course this one could go supporting too, and probably will - see below).  Other possibilities include the aforemented Penn, Gosling and Oldman, as well as Woody Harrelson for Rampart, Matt Damon for either We Bought A Zoo or Contagion and Mel Gibson for The Beaver (don't count the crazy man out just yet people).

Best Actress

• Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
• Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn)
• Rooney Mara (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo)
• Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
• Kate Winslet (Carnage)

This is probably Streep's year.  The great lady hasn't won since 1983 (twelve nominations between then and now!?) and now she is playing Margaret Thatcher to boot.  Can we say "And the Oscar goes to..."?  Winslet's role could go supporting (an ensemble piece a la Closer) and Williams could get a nod for a different movie (Take This Waltz or Meek's Cutoff).  Other possibilities include Jodie Foster (Carnage - again maybe supporting), Kiera Knightley (A Dangerous Method), Mia Wasikowska (Albert Nobbs - her time may be coming) and Emma Stone (The Help).

Best Supporting Actor

• Ben Kingsley (Hugo Cabret)
• Christoph Waltz (Carnage)
• Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy)
• Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method)
• Jim Broadbent (The Iron Lady)

The supporting categories are much more difficult to predict (even closer to the actual Oscar race) so this could be a bunch of shots in the dark.  Other possibilities are Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Ides of March or Moneyball), Geoffrey Rush (The Eye of the Storm), Kenneth Branagh (My Week With Marilyn), John Hawkes (Martha Marcy May Marlene), Armie Hammer or Josh Lucas (J. Edgar), Ben Foster (Rampart) and pretty much any of the big cast from War Horse (if it does get a slew of nominations then an acting or two is bound to be part of the sweep).  Then there is also the Sean Penn/Brad Pitt question about who is lead and who is supporting in Tree of Life.

Best Supporting Actress

• Judi Dench (My Week With Marilyn)
• Jessica Chastain (Tree of Life)
• Octavia Spencer (The Help)
• Viola Davis (The Help)
• Robin Wright (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo)

Again, the supporting categories are a bitch, so who the Hell knows. First off Dench could get nommed for J Edgar instead.  Also there is the question about Winslet and/or Foster going supporting for Carnage - who the Hell knows.  Other choices (because like I said, who the Hell knows) include Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus), Christina Ricci (Bel Ami), Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs), Naomi Watts (J Edgar), Carey Mulligan (Shame), Mia Wasikowska (Albert Nobbs - if she goes supporting) and about a dozen or so others including Marisa Tomei, Judy Davis and Scarlett Johansson.

Best Original Screenplay

• The Tree of Life
• J Edgar
• The Iron Lady
• Rango
• Contagion

Other possibilities include Rampart, Take This Waltz, Larry Crowne, Midnight in Paris (Woody holds the record in this category) and (yeah right!) Lars von Trier for Melancholia.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• War Horse
• Hugo Cabret
• The Descendants
• Carnage
• Albert Nobbs

Other possibilities include The Help, We Bought a Zoo, A Dangerous Method, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Ides of March and The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo.

I am not going to bother going on with all the technical categories - I mean this is all basically some sort of here-say at this point anyway.  I suppose we'll see come January when the nominations are announced.