Oscar Nomination Talk..and an Oscar Poll to Boot!!

Well kids, it's time to see just who got nominated for that oh so coveted little golden guy, apocryphally named after Bette Davis' uncle Oscar, as well as find out just how well (or how poorly, but we all know this isn't the case) in my annual predictions.  To get that last little piece of information out of the way (so we can enjoy the rest of our date), I went 39 for 44 in my predictions, or for the more statistically-minded amongst my readers, an 89% accuracy rate.  Not bad, but considering how predictably boring the nominations were (again) this year, I should have probably broken 90% quite easily.  Anyway, I digress.  So, without further ado, let's get a-lookin'.

First off, let's take a look at Best Picture.  As the rules state (and as this guy hates) there can be anywhere from five to ten nominees (and there should be five, as tradition - mostly - dictates), and this year, for the third year in a row, we have ended up with nine.  Oh, and by the way, these are the exact nine that I predicted yesterday.  So take that!  They are: American Hustle, 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, Nebraska, Captain Phillips, The Wolf of Wall Street, Philomena, Dallas Buyers Club, and Her.  So, as they say, no real surprises here - not that there were any real surprises anywhere today.  In Best Director, I went 4 for 5, having picked Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips instead of nominee Alex Payne for Nebraska. The other four, Alfonso Cuaron, David O. Russell, Steve McQueen, and Marty Scorsese were all pretty much shoo-ins, and therefore easy pickin's in my predictin's.  As for who might win on March 2nd?  Pic is up between Slave and Hustle I do believe, with the slight edge going to the more dramatic Slave, and Cuaron is surely the frontrunner for the directing Oscar (the first Mexican to win?).  Hustle and Gravity are the big winners, each garnering ten nominations, with 12 Years a Slave coming in with nine.  Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa also received an Oscar nomination this morning, but more on that later.  Onto the acting categories.

I went 17 for 20 in the acting slots, acing Supporting Actor, and missing just one each in the other three categories.  The big news here though (at least I think it is) is the fact that American Hustle pulled off a nomination in each of the four acting categories.  Amy Adams and Christian Bale in the leads (Bale was my one misstep in Best Actor) and Cooper and J-Law in Supportings.  This is just the fifteenth time this feat has been accomplished in Oscar history.  The last time such a thing happened?  Just last year, with Silver Linings Playbook.  What?  Huh?  That was a David O. Russell film too.   Howzabout that?  The last time before that was Reds in 1981.  As for surprises...well, there really weren't any.  No Redford (which I predicted).  No Hanks (which I did not).  No Emma Thompson (probably the closest thing to a surprise).  But we did get Sally Hawkins (again, I predicted that one), so that's a good thing.  As for my of-the-top predictions for the eventual winners, I would say (at this time only - this may change before Oscar night) McConaughey, Blanchett (though look out for Amy Adams in a surprise win), Jared Leto, and Lupita Nyong'o (unless they are willing to give J-Law two in a row).   Snubs?  Not that they ever stood even the remotest of chances, I would have loved to have seen Julie Delpy, Mia Wasikowska, or Greta Gerwig in Best Actress (maybe Rooney Mara too), Oscar Isaac, Simon Pegg, or Michael Shannon in Best Actor, Nicole Kidman, Kristen Scott Thomas, or Tao Zhao in Supporting Actress, and Matthew Goode, John Goodman, and (of course) James Franco(!!!) in Supporting Actor - but that's just me.

The screenplay nods were just as boring and predictable as everything else, as I missed just one (predicting the shamefully robbed Inside Llewyn Davis instead of the nominated Dallas Buyers Club for Original Screenplay), so there's really nothing to talk about there.   As I said earlier, I had a success rate of 89% this year, up from my pathetic 77% turnout last year, so all is good.  As for the rest of the nominees?  Well, there are some mentionables, so let's mention 'em.  A snub for Sarah Polley and her doc, Stories We Tell, nominations for Arcade Fire (Score), and Karen O of Yeah Yeah Yeahs (Song), no nod for Blue is the Warmest Color, but the wonderful Great Beauty is up (and will win!) for Foreign Language Film, Miyazaki gets an Animated Feature nod for what he has called his final film (but can he beat Disney's Frozen?), Wong Kar-wai's The Grandmaster is up for two Oscars (Cinematography and Costumes), and yes, the aforementioned Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa is nominated for Best Make-up & Hair.  So there!  A pretty unremarkable year in surprises here, but that seems to be par for the course in these recent Oscar times.  I'll be back on March 1st with my final predictions, but in the meantime, check out the Oscar poll I'm a-running 'round these parts (you will find it near the top of the right hand sidebar).  That's it for now.  See ya 'round the web.

Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

Welly well well, here we are on another Oscar nominations eve, so, without further ado (other than the poster image of 12 Years a Slave, that is), here are my final, and as the post's title says, set-in-stone, Oscar nomination predictions.  Have at 'em.  Oh, and I have listed them in order of probability within each category.

Best Picture
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. American Hustle
3. Gravity
4. Captain Phillips
5. The Wolf of Wall Street
6. Nebraska
7. Dallas Buyers Club
8. Her
9. Philomena
10. Saving Mr. Banks

Wild Cards: Blue Jasmine and/or Inside Llewyn Davis (Yeah, right - but I guy can dream)

The first three here are pretty much locks, and the next three are pretty darn as close to locks as they can be.  Now since we don't know just how many nominees we will see in this category, as the rules claim anywhere between five and ten (a rule with which this critic is not all too fond), who knows what tomorrow morning will bring.  My guess though, is eight, but if it does go to ten, there ya have it.  Other (slim) possibilities are Before Midnight, Fruitvale Station, The Butler, and even Blue is the Warmest Color, if hell freezes over.

Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity
2. Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave
3. David O. Russell for American Hustle
4. Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips

Possible Spoilers: Alexander Payne for Nebraska and/or Spike Jonze for Her

Wild Cards: The Coen Brothers for Inside Llewyn Davis

The first three are locks here, with Cuaron the frontrunner to win then gold (another split between director and picture is likely again this year).  Scorsese is likely but not a sure thing.  Greengrass is a bit on the wobbly side here, with either Payne or Jonze (or maybe even both!) on the ready to (semi)surprise tomorrow morn.  A real surprise (and a welcome one) would be a nod for the Coens.  Who knows.

Best Actor
1. Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club 
2. Chiwetel Ojiofor in 12 Years a Slave
3. Bruce Dern in Nebraska
4. Leonardo DiCaprio in The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Tom Hanks in Captain Phillips

Possible Spoilers: Robert Redford in All is Lost and/or Joaquin Phoenix in Her

Wild Card: Christian Bale in American Hustle or Forrest Whitaker in The Butler

Wow, just think, a guy who was the frontrunner to win the statue a month or so ago, may now, not even get nominated.  The top three are locks, with McConaughey in the hot seat to win in March, but the next two are a bit shaky.  Redford was the frontrunner, but with Leo buzzing up a storm, it seems unlikely he'll be left out, and Redford is the most likely culprit to end up not having his name announced tomorrow.  Of course, I could be wrong - imagine that.  Perhaps the Leo buzz came to late to affect the outcome, and Redford's once vaulted slot is safe after all. Phoenix could just as easily slip in there as well, but less likely.

Best Actress
1. Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine
2. Amy Adams in American Hustle
3. Sandra Bullock in Gravity
4. Emma Thompson in Saving Mr. Banks
5. Judi Dench in Philomena

Possible Spoiler: Meryl Streep in August: Osage County

Wild Card: Adele Exarchopoulos in Blue is the Warmest Color

What!!?  Streep not getting nominated!?  What am I, a fool!?  Yeah, well maybe I am, but with a sudden surge in buzz for Amy Adams, someone had to get knocked off the list, and La Streep is the injured party.  Otherwise, this seems a pretty tight race.

Best Supporting Actor
1. Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club
2. Michael Fassbender in 12 Years a Slave
3. Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips
4. Bradley Cooper in American Hustle
5. Jonah Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street

Possible Spoilers: Daniel Bruhl in Rush and/or Tom Hanks in Saving Mr. Banks.

Wild Card: James Gandolfini in Enough Said

Again, the top three are sure-fire locks.  Numbers four and five, a bit more on the shaky side of things.  For a while, it looked as if Mr. Hanks might be a double nominee this year, but the buzz on Saving Mr. Banks, save for the lead performance of Miss Thompson, has pretty much taken the proverbial long walk off of a short pier.  That, along with the surge of both Hill and Cooper in this race, gives us our top five, but don't be too surprised if Herr Bruhl sneaks in there somewhere.  And let's not forget Oscar's reverence for the dead, and the, albeit slim, possibility of the late Mr. Gandolfini popping up as well.

Supporting Actress
1. Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle
2. Lupita Nyong'o in 12 Years a Slave
3. June Squibb in Nebraska
4. Oprah Winfrey in Lee Daniels' The Butler
5. Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine

Possible Spoiler: Julia Roberts in August: Osage County

Wild Card: Octavia Spencer in Fruitvale Station

Again, the top three are locks.  After that, it's pretty much a free-for-all.  If Oprah is nominated, she may very well win, but it's still debatable if she will be nominated (and if she's not, then maybe we'll see back-to-back Oscars for J-Law).  As for the fifth spot, conventional wisdom goes to picking Julia Roberts, but if Streep is snubbed (as is my prediction above) then perhaps the whole film will be, leaving the spot open for one of my faves of the year, one Miss Sally Hawkins.  Then again, there tends to be a big surprise somewhere in the acting categories, and perhaps our wild card Spencer is just that surprise.

Best Original Screenplay
1. American Hustle
2. Inside Llewyn Davis
3. Nebraska
4. Her
5. Blue Jasmine

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Captain Phillips
3. Philomena
4. Before Midnight
5. The Wolf of Wall Street

The screenplay nods seem pretty firm right about now, which is kind of unusual, so there is bound to be a surprise or two in here somewhere  Possibles surprises for Original are: Saving Mr. Banks, Lee Daniels' The Butler, Frances Ha, Dallas Buyers Club, Fruitvale Station.  Others for Adapted are: August: Osage County, Blue is the Warmest Color, and The Spectacular Now.  So there ya go. 

Well, that's about it for now.  I'll let the other categories go for now (though I'm sure the 3D spectacle, Gravity, will be up for most of the tech awards, just as Life of Pi did last year).  All-in-all, I think American Hustle, 12 Years a Slave, Captain Philips, and Gravity are the films destined to lead the nominations, and maybe The Wolf of Wall Street, if that pans out.  We'll see tomorrow morning, and I'll have a wrap-up of the nods, as well as my stats in the ole predicting game.  See ya 'round the web.

Early Bird Oscar Predictions

Welly well well, the Oscars may still be several months away, but that's no reason to not get ahead of the curve, and announce your Oscar nomination predictions.  So, without further ado (other than the poster image of American Hustle, that is), here are my early bird Oscar nomination predictions.  Have at 'em.  Oh, and I have listed them in order of probability within each category.  

Best Picture
1. American Hustle
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. Gravity
4. Captain Phillips
5. The Wolf of Wall Street
6. Inside Llewyn Davis
7. Lee Daniels' The Butler
8. Nebraska
9. Before Midnight
10. Fruitvale Station

Wild Cards: Her and/or Blue is the Warmest Color

The first four are pretty much locks right now, and that doesn't look likely to change.  It's after that, that things get a bit tricky.  For awhile, it looked as if Scorsese's Wolf of Wall Street was going to be pushed back until 2014, but a Christmas Day release has recently been put on the books, so in it goes.  Then again, Scorsese rushed to get the film done in time, so that may hurt the film, even if it is from a master director.  For now though, I'm including it.  I am also including another maybe film, in the Coen Brothers' Inside Llewyn Davis.  It is a small film, but these guys are popular, so in it goes.  Then you have The Butler and Nebraska, and if Oscar is going deep again this year (the rules state anywhere between five and ten nominees in this category - and please don't get me started on the stupidity of such a rule), these two could easily pop in there.  After this, it gets really tricky.  No one else is actually predicting the two films I placed in the last two (possible) spots, instead predicting films like Saving Mr. Banks or August: Osage County or Rush or All is Lost (any of which are very reasonable, and probably more probable guesses), but I'm putting these two critical faves on my list anyway.   Then ya got my two wild card choices.  Probably very wild (especially the 3 hour French lesbian drama that was recently laughed at during an Academy member screening) but stranger things have happened at the Oscars.  Any other possibilities?  Other than those I mention just above (especially All is Lost or Saving Mr. Banks), I suppose either Blue Jasmine or Dallas Buyers Club could sneak in if given enough critics awards leverage, but still somewhat doubtful - at least this early in the game.

Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity
2. Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave
3. David O. Russell for American Hustle
4. Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips
5. Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street

The 6th (or 7th) Man Award: Joel & Ethan Coen for Inside Llewyn Davis

Wild Card: Spike Jonze for Her

Just like with BP, the top four seem to be locks here (I think that, no matter which film takes BP, Cuaron is still winning this award), leaving just the fifth spot open for debate.  Granted, I may be overselling Scorsese this year (I actually undersold him in my predictions two years ago, when I did not see the love for Hugo that would be coming), especially with the supposed rush job the director did in post production, but then again, he is Martin Fucking Scorsese, so that alone could pop him in here.  But, in case the film does tank (or at least partially so), the Brothers Coen could easily sneak in there instead of him.  But still, wouldn't it be fun to hear Spike Jonze' name announced on that Tuesday morning?  Too quirky?  Maybe.  Maybe. Other possibilities include Lee Daniels for the rather egotistically named Lee Daniels' The Butler, J.C Chandor for All is Lost, and Alexander Payne for Nebraska.  We could also see Fruitvale Station's Ryan Coogler in there if Harvey Weinstein has his way.  Woody Allen or Richard Linklater are probably asking too much.  Then again, my two faves of the year (Park Chan-wook for Stoker and Wong Kar-wai for The Grandmaster) is probably really asking to much.

Best Actor
1. Robert Redford in All is Lost
2. Chiwetel Ojiofor in 12 Years a Slave
3. Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club
4. Bruce Dern in Nebraska
5. Tom Hanks in Captain Phillips

5a. Forrest Whitaker in Lee Daniels' The Butler
5b. Christian Bale in American Hustle
5c. Joaquin Phoenix in Her
5d. Leonardo DiCaprio in The Wolf of Wall Street

Wild Card: James Gandolfini in Enough Said

This category looks pretty much tied up for these five actors, but if there is any slip in there (Tom Hanks has been awarded enough, McConaughey still doesn't get the respect he deserves, Nebraska doesn't get any awards traction), then any one of our illustrious other number fives could surprise.  As for Gandolfini, if this were a less competitive year in this category, of if the role had some more meat on it, a posthumous nod would be his, but it probably ain't a-gonna happen this year.  Then again, they could pull (somewhat) category fraud, and bill him as supporting (see below).  The only other nominee I think might stand a chance is Michael B. Jordan in Fruitvale Station, but there's going to have to be a lot of precursor buzz around the kid.  In the end though, barring a complete American Hustle sweep (and therefore, a nod for Bale), I think I may be 5 for 5 on this one, unless the love for Hanks goes fully into his supporting chances (see below) and one of the 5a thru d's sneak in.  As for the Oscar itself, I think this might just be Redford's year. A supposedly tour de force performance from a living Hollywood legend near the (maybe) end of his career, who has never won an acting Oscar before. Yeah.  Oh wait, that pretty much describes Bruce Dern this year as well.  Hmmm?

Best Actress
1. Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine
2. Sandra Bullock in Gravity
3. Judi Dench in Philomena
4. Meryl Streep in August: Osage County
5. Amy Adams in American Hustle

The 6th (Wo)Man Award: Emma Thompson in Saving Mr. Banks

Wild Card: Julie Delpy in Before Midnight
Wilder Card: Greta Gerwig in Frances Ha
Wildest Card: Adele Exarchopoulos in Blue is the Warmest Color

The top four feel like locks to me.  Dench and Streep will most likely get nominated here (again!) but this is a battle between Cate and Sandra.  No one else need apply.  As for the fifth spot, it seems like a two way race between Adams and Thompson.  If Hustle goes big (and it probably will) it will be Adams (in an atypical grittier role, and in the lead spot instead of her usual supporting role), if not, then Thompson.  On a sidenote, if it is Thompson as the fifth nominee, this will be the second year in a row with a category made up entirely of past Oscar winners.  As for the wild cards, probably not a chance without some precursory love.  Any others, you ask?  Maybe Kate Winslet in Labor Day or perhaps Julia Roberts as Streep's co-star, if the inevitable bait-and-switch category fraud marketing of her co-lead role in the Supporting category, doesn't pan out (see below).  But what of Naomi Watts, you ask?  Earlier in the year, I had predicted (along with many fellow pundits) Watts inevitable nomination for playing Princess Diana.  As of this writing (the film has opened in the UK, but not in the US yet) the film has a 5% on Rotten Tomatoes.  Doesn't exactly instill confidence in a Best Actress nomination, now does it?  Of course these are mostly from UK critics, and they will probably be harder on a film about one of their beloveds, but I don't see that percentage getting significantly higher come its US release.

Best Supporting Actor
1. Michael Fassbender in 12 Years a Slave
2. Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club
3. Tom Hanks in Saving Mr. Banks
4. Matthew McConaughey in Mud or The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Daniel Brühl in Rush

The 6th Man Award: John Goodman in Inside Llewyen Davis

Wild Card: Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips

Have We Mentioned: James Gandolfini in Enough Said

At first it looked like this could be Fassbender's year (Oscar loves an evil sonofabitch, and that is just what Fassbender plays here), but as time goes on, it looks like this could very well be someone else's year.  There could be an Oscar in the near future for the  former Jordan Catalano (what, no My So-Called Life fans here?), aka Jared Leto, going transgender and tragic. Whatever the case, these two actors are locks.  After that, everything is up in the air. If Hanks and McConaughey are nominated here, we could see only the second time in Oscar history (the first being 1993 and Holly Hunter and Emma Thompson) where there were two double nominees.  Since this seems to be the most open category this year, we could see almost anyone take a nod here.  I am going with the Rush co-star (again, category fraud perhaps) but Goodman, though it is a very small role, could see his long overdue first nomination if the Coen Brothers film hits big. He has co-starred in the last two BP winners, after all - not that that really means anything here.  We could also maybe see the late James Gandolfini here if they decide to go that route.  A big surprise though would be the Captain Phillips' pirate, Barkhad Abdi sneaks in.  Well, considering I am sort of predicting the possibility, it shouldn't come as that much of a surprise.  Other possibilities include Jeremy Renner and Bradley Cooper from American Hustle (they could cancel each other out though), Jonah Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street, and, in what could be a huge surprise, ex-SNLer Will Forte in Nebraska.  

Supporting Actress
1. Oprah Winfrey in Lee Daniels' The Butler
2. Lupita Nyong'o in 12 Years a Slave
3. Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine
4. Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle
5. Octavia Spencer in Fruitvale Station

The 6th (Wo)Man Award: Julia Roberts in August: Osage County

Wild Card: June Squibb in Nebraska

Winfrey and the mostly unknown Nyong'o are virtual locks, while Hawkins is close to one (Woody Allen and Supporting Actress has a long and prosperous history), and Oscar loves Lawrence enough to probably make her one as well (especially if Hustle is one of the big Oscar nomination morning successes), which leaves that ever popular fifth spot a race between, essentially three ladies. Spencer (obviously) is my choice right now (c'mon, she plays a Martyred mom) but if Nebraska hits kinda big (as in a BP nod), Squibb could sneak in.  Then ya got poor Julia Roberts.  Her role opposite Streep is essentially the co-lead, but Oscar is notoriously bad when it comes to same sex co-leads - one, for some reason or another, must go supporting, and in this case, it is Julia.  Basically, what is the most likely outcome, is Roberts falling somewhere in between the two categories and ending up without a nod for anything. I suppose we could see Sarah Paulson up for 12 Years a Slave, but only if the film hits big and people like Spencer and Squibb are overlooked.

Best Original Screenplay
1. American Hustle
2. Inside Llewyn Davis
3. Nebraska
4. Her
5. Blue Jasmine

Wild Card: Mud

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Captain Phillips
3. Philomena
4. Before Midnight
5. Blue is the Warmest Color

Wild Card: Short Term 12

The top three in each category seem like sure things, but after that, anything could really happen here (there are questions on which category some of these films will end up in).  And let's not forget those wild cards.  This is a category where they could seriously happen.  Other possibles for Original are: Saving Mr. Banks, Lee Daniels' The Butler, Frances Ha, Dallas Buyers Club, Fruitvale Station, and Gravity, but only if they go gaga for the film.  Others for Adapted are: August: Osage County, The Wolf of Wall Street, and The Spectacular Now.  So there ya go. 

Well, that's about it for now.  I'll let the other categories wait for my final Oscar predictions in January (though I'm sure the 3D spectacle, Gravity, will be up for most of the tech awards, just as Life of Pi did last year).  All-in-all, I think American Hustle, 12 Years a Slave, Captain Philips, and Gravity are the films destined to lead the nominations, and maybe The Wolf of Wall Street, if that pans out.  We'll see you in January for the Oscar nominations.

Oh Yeah, The Oscars...

So, the Oscars are over for another year.  Affleck won, so did DDL, J-Law, Hathaway and Waltz.  Oh yeah, and Ang Lee too.  His record now is two Best Director Oscars and zero Best Picture wins.  Tarantino won his second Oscar as well, and that's just alright with me.  J-Law fell, and Wolverine (and Brad Cooper) came to her rescue.  Seth MacFarlane apparently (just judging from Facebook and Twitter) pissed some people off.  Sang a song about boobs, mocked women for never letting anything go, and told an off-colour joke about George Clooney and a nine year old - sorta.  People really need to get over themselves.  Pull that enormous stick out of their collective asses and realize these are just jokes.  Oh yeah, and there was the Onion tweet.  Okay, perhaps not the smartest move, considering how overly sensitive people are these days, but again, just a fucking joke people.  And then you have those offended that our First Lady was involved in the proceedings, but those are just the crazy right-wingers, and they're mostly a bunch of cunts anyway.  See what I did there?  Anyway, I digress. Ya know, my one friend says I do nothing but digress in my writing, but what the hell does he know!?  But anyway, I digress.  Again, see what I did there.  As I was getting to earlier, I enjoyed MacFarlane as host, but what do I know, I still think that Oprah, Uma bit that Letterman did was heeelarious.  Anyway, digressing once again, I got 18 right in my predictions.  If I listened to my heart and picked Christoph Waltz to win, I would have tied my record of 19, but alas, I did not.  Well that's it for the Oscars - and for 2012 - let us move on to bigger and better things, ya bunch of dirty cunts.  Ha, I kid.  Love ya all.

My Final Oscar Predictions!!

Just a day to go until we find out just how many of the below twenty-four predictions I will get right.  My record is nineteen (accomplished in '08, '09 and just last year).  I am reaching for twenty this year, but considering how things have gone (who did not think Affleck was a lock for a Director nomination?), this may not be that year.  Then again, stay positive and all that, so on with the show.  Here are my predictions for the Academy Awards.

Best Picture - Argo

Thanks to Ben Affleck's notorious snub in the Director category, Argo has become the far and away frontrunner - sapping the momentum away from former frontrunner, Lincoln.  I mean, it isn't necessarily a lock - Lincoln could still win, and even Silver Linings could sneak in (not really) - but it is a pretty safe bet, so I am going with it.  Still would love to see Django be the shock of the evening though.  Maybe Zero Dark Thirty even.  Yeah, right.

Best Director - Steven Spielberg for Lincoln

Yeah, yeah, Ben Affleck was snubbed.  I think we all know that by now.  I have even mentioned it three times already.  Does he deserve the Oscar?  No, he does not.  Personally I am not a big fan of Argo (my least favourite Affleck-directed film), but I do see why everyone is up in arms and all that, since the film is up (and winning) for Best pic.  But, since write-in votes will not be counted (according to Academy rules), this award is going to Mr. Spielberg - for the third fucking time.  I really don't think he deserves it either, but that doesn't change my opinion on him winning.  Sure, Lee, or even Russell could sneak in, or Haneke could surprise (if there is going to be a big upset, it is going to be here), but the safe money is on Spielberg.  My personal nominees would have been Tarantino, Bigelow, PT Anderson, Bela Tarr and Cronenberg - but that's just me.

Best Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln

Personally my vote would go to the unwinnable Joaquin Phoenix, but there is no way in hell DDL is not winning his unprecedented third Best Actor Oscar.  The actor, one of my faves, has been in better films than the achingly over-praised Lincoln, but still...yeah, he's winning.

Best Actress - Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook

Basically a two-way race between Lawrence and Chastain (my vote going to the latter), it could sensibly go either way, but in the end, I think the controversy over 0D30 will be too much, and J-Law will win.  Then again, Emmanuelle Riva's name could be called out.  No really, it could.

Best Supporting Actor - Robert De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook

This category, along with Adapted Screenplay, was the toughest for me to narrow down.  Basically a three-way race between De Niro, Tommy-Lee Jones and Christoph Waltz.  Most precognitors are going with Tommy-Lee, and up until last week, I had been as well.  In the end though, I think the twenty-one year gap between nominations, and thirty-two since he last won, will give it to Bobby D - even if the role is less than Oscar worthy.

Best Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway in Les Misérables

I know, if I applied the same logic as I did just above, then Sally Field, who was last nominated (and won) twenty-eight years ago, should be my pick, but this is one of those so-called sure bets.  You know, like the sure bet of Ben Affleck's Oscar nomination for Best Direc...oh, yeah...um...nevermind.  But yeah, Annie is winning this one.

Best Original Screenplay - Tarantino for Django Unchained
Best Adapted Screenplay - Chris Terrio for Argo

Damn, these are really tough this year.  Both of these are legitimate three-way races.  The WGA's went to Terrio for Adapted and Zero Dark Thirty's Mark Boal for Original, and those are probably the safe bets, but as you see, I only went with one of these.  My heart still can not, not vote for QT.  We'll see.

Best Animated Feature - Wreck-It Ralph
Best Documentary Feature - Searching for Sugar Man
Best Foreign-Language Film - Amour

More often than not, Animated Feature is a foregone conclusion.  This year, not so much.  Even with a Pixar nominee in the bunch.  With that said, I am going with my personal favourite.  Doc Feature is a bit of a foregone conclusion (everyone loves Sugar Man), but How To Survive a Plague, could sneak in.  As far as those foregone conclusions go, Foreign-Language Film is the one to go with - and so is Amour.

As for the rest:

Best Cinematography - Life of Pi

Best Film Editing - Argo
Best Production Design - Anna Karenina
Best Costume Design - Anna Karenina 
Best Hair and Make-Up - The Hobbit
Best Original Score - Life of Pi
Best Original Song - Skyfall
Best Sound Mixing - Les Misérables
Best Sound Editing - Zero Dark Thirty
Best Visual Effects - Life of Pi
Best Documentary Short - Open Heart
Best Short Film (Animation) - Paperman
Best Short Film (Live Action) - Curfew

So there ya go kiddies.  Be back Monday with a round-up and letchya know if I reached my goal of twenty or not.

Who You Think SHOULD Win The Oscar!!

Well, well, well.  Lookie here.  It appears to be time to announce the final results in this year's Oscar Poll.  You were asked to decide which of the nine nominated films most deserves to win the Oscar for Best Picture - and answer it you most certainly did.  In fact, you did it with a quite incredible 195 votes cast - 123 more than last year.  Yeah, that's right!

Last year, The Tree of Life ran away with the whole shebang, garnering a whopping 43%.  This year, things were a bit more spread out, but we still had a rather decisive victory in the end.  Django Unchained, the latest film from Quentin Tarantino (and my favourite film of the year, nominated or not), led from day one, never relinquishing its lead, and actually sported a nine vote lead at one point. In the end, with a grand total of 42 votes, or 22% for the statistically-inclined, it beat out its nearest competitor by seven votes.  And speaking of that nearest competitor, it was Michael Haneke's Amour that finished second, with 35 votes, or 18%.  And that was pretty much the whole race, as third place was another ten votes from Amour, and never really challenged the second place film at all.

But, to get through the other seven films in the race, here we go.  Third place went to Zero Dark Thirty (my second favourite of the pack), grabbing 25 votes, or 13%.  Fourth place ended up as a tie between the two films that have battled for frontrunner status in the actual Oscar race.  Argo and Lincoln each received 20 votes, or 10%.  Meanwhile, there was another tie for sixth place.  Les Misérables and Beasts of the Southern Wild both nabbed 16 votes, or 8%.   Then we have Silver Linings Playbook (my least favourite of the bunch), coming in at eighth place, with 12 votes, or 6%, and bringing up the rear ('cause someone has to) is poor ole Life of Pi, with just 9 votes, or a mere 5%.  Poor little Pi.

Well, there ya go.  Now all that's left is to actually hand out the Oscars.  I will be back tomorrow with my predictions for Oscar night.  After that, I will be busily preparing for our 4th Annual Midtown Cinema Red Carpet Oscar Party - where there may or may not be some tweeting about said show.  And then, we'll see you back here on Monday with a whole big freakin' round-up.  Until then, see ya in the funny papers.

LAMB Devours the Oscars: A Look at the Best Director Nominees

Well, here we are again kiddies.  That time of year where the fine folks over at the LAMB (The Large Association of Movie Blogs, for the initiated amongst you) take volunteers to write about the Oscars.  After writing on the Doc Shorts in 2011, and Art Direction last year, I find myself assigned to the Best Director category this time around - my first choice actually.  With that said, let us now delve into, what is probably the most controversial category this year.

By now, anyone who is anyone has heard of the great snub handed to both Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck.  I can understand, but not agree on one snub, while not understanding but totally agreeing on the other.  Bigelow, not getting nominated for the brilliantly brazen Zero Dark Thirty, is a real shame.  If I had a ballot, she would surely make my top five, but, in a way, her snub is understandable.  First, she is a woman in the manly world of Hollywood.  Yeah, she is the only woman to ever win the Best Director Oscar - for the Hurt Locker in case you didn't already know - but Hollywood is very much a boy's club.  Very much a boy's club indeed.  There is also the whole controversy over the film and its showing of American torture techniques.  I say get over it people, but I am sure this was a factor in her snub as well.

As for Affleck's snub, this is much more questionable a thing.  Affleck is loved in the industry.  His film Argo, though political as well, is set far enough in the past, as to not offend too many people.   This, and the fact that he has won pretty much every award for directing that has been given out this awards season.  I know I, along with just about every other Oscar postulater on the web, had Affleck  listed as a lock to get a nomination.  It was surely the biggest snub of this Oscar year.  Making it even more noticeable, is the fact that the Director's Guild nominated Affleck, Bigelow, Spielberg, Ang Lee and Tom Hooper, and then only gave Oscar nods to two of these (Spielberg and Lee), and then had the audacity to name Affleck the winner!?  Putting aside that the DGA and the director's branch of the Academy are extremely similar in their membership make-up, and therefore should nominate basically the same group of people, this is just crazy.  Then again, even though I like Affleck, and am a big fan of his first two films as director, I was not overly impressed with Argo myself, so Affleck not getting nominated is not that big of a deal to me.

Of course, all this snubbing and controversy has probably assured Argo the Best Picture Oscar - just for spite alone, if for no other reason.   And to answer any possible questions about the possibility of a write-in vote campaign, it is not going to happen.  Such a thing was once allowed, but after Hal Mohr "stole" the Best Cinematography Oscar, via a write-in campaign, back in 1935, the Academy changed the rules and disallowed any future write-in winners.  There have been a couple times in Oscar history when the subject has again been breached - most recently in 1988, when Michael Moore's Roger and Me failed to get a nomination for Best Documentary, and in 2008, when The Dark Knight was supposedly snubbed, the latter of which caused the Academy to up the ante to ten nominees for Best picture.  But no, it will not happen this year, as no write-in vote will be counted.  Perhaps we can all hope for a last minute reprieve (though not a big Argo fan, after all this craziness, even I want the guy to win now) but otherwise...not happening.  But enough of all this woulda coulda shoulda nonsense.  We are here to discuss the five nominees that are actually nominated.

Let's start out with the three nominees that really have no shot in Hell of winning come February 24th.  This, of course, is said with just a bit of trepidation, since I was so sure Affleck would get nominated back on January 9th, but here we go anyway.  First up, we have a pair of first time nominees.  Benh Zeitlin for his directorial debut, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and legendary world master, Michael Haneke, for his harrowing Amour.  Zeitlin's film has some beautiful moments in it - and it did make my Best of 2012 list (coming in at no. 20) - but neither he, nor his film, are likely to win here.  The nomination is his real award.  As for Haneke, he is one of those rarities - a Best Director nominee for a foreign-language film.  It has happened just twenty-one times in the Academy's eighty-five year history, most recently, before this year, was in 2007.  The two-time Palme d'Or winner (for The White Ribbon in 2009, and Amour this past year) finally joins that club this year.

Haneke, who incidentally is just the fifth Austrian-born nominee in this category (the others being Billy Wilder, Otto Preminger, Fred Zinnemann and Josef von Sternberg) and the first to be nominated for a film actually made in Austria (the other nominees were all already working in Hollywood when they were nominated), will surely win an Oscar on February 24th.  Amour will win Best Foreign-Language (he says with such confidence) and that Oscar will go to Haneke, but for Best Director, it is highly unlikely.  Then again, a surprise victory for Haneke is probably more likely (however miniscule a chance it is) than a victory for David O. Russell.  Sure, his film, Silver Linings Playbook, is up for eight Oscars (including one in each of the four acting categories - last done by Reds in 1981), and for a short moment in time, it was seen as a possible frontrunner for Best Picture (a long gone moment by now), but it just doesn't seem like that important of a picture to give the Oscar too.  Of course, don't tell that to star Jennifer Lawrence, who is probably going to beat out the much more deserving Jessica Chastain in the Best Actress category.  Russell, who was nominated once before, for 2010's The Fighter, is another one of those, like Haneke and Zeitlin, where the nomination is the award.  Still, it would be fun to hear Haneke's name called on Oscar night.  Maybe that would make Lars von Trier a sudden frontrunner for next year's awards.  Maybe not.  Anyway, let's get to the two nominees, that could actually win this bitch.

I suppose conventional wisdom would say that Steven Spielberg is the most likely to win (unless the Academy board of Governors come through on that last-minute stay of execution on Affleck and his write-in votes) but we should not count out Ang Lee just yet.  Until recently, and the snub factor for Argo's eventual win (and Affleck, being a producer on the film, will still receive an Oscar if it wins BP), Spielberg's Lincoln has been the frontrunner for the top prize, and that is likely to transfer over to a Best Director Oscar - Spielberg's third, if it does indeed happen.  But then you have Ang Lee and the seeming love for Life of Pi - nominated for eleven Oscars, second only to Lincoln's twelve.  Granted, Pi will most likely win a couple tech awards (Art Direction the most likely of these), but this love could transfer to a Best Director award as well.  Funny enough, both Spielberg and Lee have won Oscars, while their respective films did not.  Spielberg won Best Director in 1998, while his Saving Private Ryan was beaten out by Shakespeare in Love for the top prize.  Meanwhile, Lee took home the Oscar in 2005, for Brokeback Mountain, while the godawful Crash inexplicably took home Best Picture.  Barring a surprise victory by Haneke (seriously, I would love this to happen), this scenario will happen again this year for one of these two directors.

So, who do I think will win?  Right now I am leaning ever-so-slightly toward Ang Lee, but I won't be making my final Oscar predictions until the night before the Oscars, so who knows who I will eventually mark off on my ballot.   Well, I suppose that is it for now.  Hopefully the fine folks who run the LAMB, like my contribution to their .  Not that I would actually change it if they didn't, but it is nice to please people...sometimes.  Anyway, there ya go.  See ya on the 23rd, with my final Oscar predix.  Well, I'll see you before that, as I will still be posting new reviews and other such fun items, but you know what I mean.

What Film SHOULD Win the Best Picture Oscar?

There has been a lot of talk, in certain circles, about which film is going to walk away with the Oscar.  Will it be Lincoln, or will Argo make a lat minute sneak attack and take home the top gold?  For what it's worth, I believe the latter will end up happening on February 24th.  Director Affleck's snub at the Oscars - while winning pretty much every other award known to humanity - is probably the one defining element that will make such a thing happen.  But then, we are not here to talk about who or what WILL win the Oscar, but instead, who or what SHOULD win the damn thing.  And this is your chance to say so.

I first opened this poll the day of the Oscar nominations announcement, and so far 136 votes have been cast.  Pretty damn good, if you ask me, but it could be better - which is the exact reason why this post exists.  To let everyone know that it is here, or there, or wherever cyberspace really is.  So get your vote on everyone.  If you were handed an Oscar ballot, who would you pick?  Would it be the thrills of Django or Zero Dark Thirty?  Would it be the heartache of Beasts or Amour?  Would it be the suspense of Argo or the stature of Lincoln?  Would it be spectacle of Les Mis, or Miz, if you prefer?  Would it be the ADD comedy of Silver Linings or the sheer visual audacity of Life of Pi?  Which film would you pick to take home the gold?  

All you have to do is go on over to the poll - found conveniently near the top of the sidebar of this very site - and choose which of the nine BP nominees is your favourite.  And please remember, feel free to post as many comments as your heart desires (the more, the merrier - we can never have enough comments), but in order for your vote to count, you must click on the actual poll itself.  The poll will go on until Friday, February 22nd, and the final results will be posted right here (same bat channel and all that) on Saturday, February 23rd.  And, incidentally, speaking of the Oscars, my predictions for the big night will be posted early on Sunday, February 24th.  So go vote people - and send everyone you know this way too.  Let's rock the vote!

There Be Oscar Nominations Maties!...and a New Poll Too!!

Well folks, Oscar Nomination Morning (a strange little holiday in our household) has come and gone, and we are left with all of our why's and WTF's - and I am left with my worst prediction rating in...well, in as long as I can recall.   Garnering a rather pathetic prediction percentage of just 71% (slightly lifted to a still quite poor 77% when including just the big eight categories), I should well be ashamed of myself.  I am not, but I should be dammit.  Anyway, to get on with what gave me such a low rating, here we go.

I went four for five in all the acting and both the writing categories, and I went eight for nine in Best Picture (I even aced the costumes - so there), but alas, it was Oscar's quite surprising choices for the director slot that got me, and many other Oscar precogs I am sure, all befuddled and bewildered.  Allow me to quote what I wrote yesterday, when predicting this category. "The top three here are locks.  No doubts.  In fact, I think Affleck may actually take the Oscar, but that is a story for next month."  Well, those top three, and I may add, the top three on nearly every other prediction I came across yesterday, were Steven Spielberg, Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck.  Anyone who was up early to watch the nominations this morning, or anyone who has looked up the nominees since then, you already know full well that the latter two of those supposed locks, were not named today.  Snubbed, royally snubbed indeed.  So, in the very same category that I boldly claimed that I was assured of at least a 60% accuracy rate, I got just a 40%.  Yeah, I figured picking Tarantino was a bit of a stretch, but I figured Affleck and Bigelow were safe bets.  Locks, no doubt, some said.  Anyway, I digress.

There were some nice surprises too.  Like, to go right back to that director fiasco, Michael Haneke's first ever nomination in the category - as well as a nod for screenplay (and the film is also up for picture, actress and, of course, foreign language as well).  I did have the Austrian master pegged as my dark horse pick at least.  Other dark horse picks to grab nominations were Joaquin Phoenix for Best Actor and Quvenzhané Wallis for Best Actress.  Wallis, along with Haneke's Amour star Emmanuelle Riva, are now the youngest and oldest ever Best Actress nominees, respectively.  Other nice picks were Tarantino for Screenplay and Christoph Waltz for Supporting Actor.  As a fun sidenote, for the first time ever, all five nominees in a single category (Best Supporting Actor in this case) are former Oscar winners.  So there.  Granted, I would have liked to have seen Matthew McConaughey and/or Ann Dowd get surprise nods, or possibly P.T. Anderson, but alas, 'twas not to happen.  As for who will win, my best conjecture right now is Lincoln, Spielberg, DDL, Chastain, De Niro, Hathaway.  My Alt. Picks: SLP wins all six of these. My Alt. Alt. Picks: Haneke wins Best Director, and Lars von Trier suddenly becomes frontrunner for next year.  But, I am getting ahead of myself here.

Hey, before I go, I should probably mention the new poll here at The Most Beautiful Fraud in the World.  Starting today, and running through February 22nd, you can cast your vote for the film that you think SHOULD win the Best Picture Oscar.  As I am sure you can see (this golden-coloured poll can be found near the top of the sidebar of this very site), all you need do is choose which of the nine nominees you would vote for if you had a ballot.  Remember, not what you think will win, but what you think SHOULD win.  Winners (and losers) will be announced the day before the Oscars - as will my final Oscar predictions.  Here's hopin' I do better than I did today.

Oscar Nomination Predictions

Well, ladies and germs, it is that time of year again.  Granted, it is a bit earlier this time around, but it is still time for my annual Oscar nomination predictions.  With the announcement coming tomorrow morning, here are my predictions for who will get nominated in the wee hours of 5:30 am PST (8:30 am around these Atlantic coast parts).  In 2009, I did a bang up job of predicting, and had a prediction rate of 89%.  In 2010, I dropped ever-so-slightly, to an 87%, and then last year, I kind of plummeted a bit, to a rather lackluster 82% prediction rate.  Here's hopin' I can bring that number back up again, but this year seems a bit more difficult to narrow in, so that may not happen.  Anyway, here we go.

Best Picture

Since we are never sure these days, just how many nominations will come in this top category (the academy officially says between five and ten), I will list them in order of probability, starting with the big five.

• Lincoln
• Les Miserables
• Zero Dark Thirty
• Argo
• The Silver Linings Playbook

If it goes further (my prediction is eight)...

• Life of Pi
• Django Unchained
• Beasts of the Southern Wild

Then again, it could go to ten...

• Moonrise Kingdom
• Skyfall

But Don't Count Out: Amour
Dark Horse: The Master

Really, any of the top three could be considered the frontrunner here, but we are not here to talk about who might win, but instead, who will get nominated, and the top three are definite locks for that.  In fact the top five are all locks for nominations.  I think Django, though controversial, will slip in there as well, as will Life of Pi and Beasts.  Then it gets tricky.  Will there be a ninth or tenth nominee?  Who knows.  There were nine last year, but what does that matter?  The PGA gave nominations to the top nine on this list, and a tenth one to Skyfall, but will Oscar actually nominate a Bond film?  Probably not, but hey, almost anything can happen when we reach ten nominees.  As I say above though, I think it will stop at eight.  Then again, we should not count out Michael Haneke's Amour.  A virtual lock for the Foreign Language Oscar, it's name has been ballyhooed about on many an Oscar predictor's table.  And then, we also have The Master.  PTA's film had once been thought the frontrunner, but those days are long past.  Now it is merely wishful thinking that this film, my second favourite of the year, will get a BP nomination.  As for one final longshot possibility - let's go with Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, and leave it at that.

Best Director

• Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
• Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty
• Ben Affleck for Argo
• Ang Lee for Life of Pi
• Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained

But Don't Count Out: Tom Hooper for Les Miz and/or David O. Russell for Silver Linings
Dark Horse: Michael Haneke for Amour

The top three here are locks.  No doubts.  In fact, I think Affleck may actually take the Oscar, but that is a story for next month.  As for Lee, I think he has a strong near-lockish feel.  But this is when we get into trouble.  Who will be that fifth nominee?  The DGA just announced its nominations, and the top four, along with Tom Hooper, were their choices.  Normally, the DGA and the Oscars match four for five, so that means one of these five will need to be tossed aside tomorrow morning.  Obviously, I have chosen that person to be Hooper. Common sense says this won't happen. Les Miz is probably too big a film to let that happen, and it is considered a frontrunner for the BP Oscar, but still, my heart says go for the wishful thinking of good ole QT, so go with him I shall.  I suppose Hooper could still get in, and Tarantino would replace Lee.  Of course, we could see a 5 for 5 match with the DGA.  Then again, we should not count out Russell, and some people are talking a surprise nod for Haneke.  As for P.T. Anderson - like his film, three months ago he would have been a veritable shoo-in.  Now though, forget about him.  It would be great to see though, huh?  Anyway, to throw one other possible, but quite unlikely surprise in, howzabout Banh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild.  Yeah, probably not.  Like I said, this is the most difficult category this year, but at least I am assured of a 60% ratio on this one.

Best Actor

• Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln
• Hugh Jackman in Les Misérables
• John Hawkes in The Sessions
• Bradley Cooper in The Silver Linings Playbook
• Denzel Washington in Flight

But Don't Count Out/Dark Horse: Joaquin Phoenix in The Master

This is probably the easiest category to predict this year.  Almost anyone who is anyone has these exact five names getting announced tomorrow morning.  I see no reason to change that.  A few months ago, both Bill Murray and Anthony Hopkins were thought to be pretty good bets, but now, we can forget 'em.  The only other possible surprise would be Phoenix sneaking in, but I suppose that ship has pretty much sailed.  Still would be fun to see though.

Best Actress

• Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty
• Jennifer Lawrence in The Silver Linings Playbook
• Marion Cotillard in Rust and Bone
• Naomi Watts in The Impossible
• Emmanuelle Riva in Amour

But Don't Count Out: Helen Mirren in Hitchcock
Dark Horse: Quvenzhané Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild

Chastaine and Lawrence are pure locks.  The actual Oscar is probably a battle between the two of them.  Cotillard is what one would call near-lockish, and Watts seems to be a pretty strong contender as of late.  Then we have that fifth spot. Helen Mirren was thought of as a lock just a month ago, then her film came out and it just wasn't very good.  Rachel Weisz, for The Deep Blue Sea, may have had a chance, but no one remembers the film.  For the longest time, many - myself included - were pushing for a nod for nine year old Quvenzhane Wallis.  That could still happen, but I think instead of the youngest (she was just six when she made the film) will end up making way for the oldest, in 85 year old Emmanuelle Riva.  Riva blew most - myself included - away with her stunning performance, and even though it is a foreign language performance (Oscar has never been overly big on such, and Cotillard may already have the token foreign spot here), I think she will grab that fifth nod.  Then again, Wallis could still get in, taking Watts place instead. 

Best Supporting Actor

• Alan Arkin in Argo
• Robert De Niro in The Silver Linings Playbook
• Tommy-Lee Jones in Lincoln
• Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Master
• Javier Bardem in Skyfall

But Don't Count Out: Leonardo DiCaprio in Django Unchained
Dark Horses: Matthew McConaughey in Magic Mike and/or Eddie Redmayne in Les Miz

I would say the top four are locks, though Hoffman may be only a semi-lock, since his film is getting a bit bamboozled this awards season.  As for the fifth spot, DiCaprio is probably the safe bet here (and a bet that I have been saying for months now - even as far back as my June early bird predix), but there is so much love for Skyfall (really, it isn't that great people) that I think the first ever acting nod from a Bond film will actually happen.  The thing I would love to see happen is McConaughey sneaking in, which, I suppose, could happen.  Yeah, right, but a guy can hope.  I suppose I should mention that, if the voters have really taken to Django, we could see not just DiCaprio, but possibly Christoph Waltz in there as well, but that scenario is highly unlikely.  Still wanted to mention it though.  One final thought on this category.  If Eddie Redmayne is nominated tomorrow morning, that means the love for Les Miz is through the proverbial roof, and it will take home BP.  There ya go.

Best Supporting Actress

• Anne Hathaway in Les Misérables
• Helen Hunt in The Sessions
• Sally Field in Lincoln
• Amy Adams in The Master
• Maggie Smith in The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

But Don't Count Out: Nicole Kidman in The Paperboy
Dark Horse: Ann Dowd in Compliance

Hathaway is the lockiest of locks (this and Actor seem to be the two big locks for actual Oscar night), and Hunt and Field are in there for sure as well.  Adams, like Hoffman above, should still get in, even without the love for The Master.  Then, like with most categories, we have that fifth spot.  Some are saying Kidman, some are saying Dame Maggie.  It really could go either way, but I think Smith will get the nod tomorrow morning.  I would love, love, love to hear Dowd's name announced tomorrow, and this tends to be the category most rife with surprises over the years, so who knows.  We probably shouldn't count out Hathaway's costar, Samantha Barks, or another dame, Judi Dench for Skyfall, but both still quite unlikely.

Best Original Screenplay

• Zero Dark Thirty
• Moonrise Kingdom
• Django Unchained
• Amour
• The Master

But Don't Count Out: Flight and/or Brave
Dark Horse: Looper

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Silver Linings Playbook
• Lincoln
• Argo
• The Sessions
• Beasts of the Southern Wild

But Don't Count Out: Les Misérables and/or Life of Pi and/or Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Dark Horse: The Perks of Being a Wallflower

I think this is Paul Thomas Anderson's best, and probably only, chance at a nomination this year.  I think both of these sets are relatively strong bets.  I probably should include Les Miz, but I already kicked Hooper to the curb in the Director category, so why not here as well. Of course Les Miz could easily pick up 12 or 13 nominations tomorrow morning, and, and like its musical contemporary, Chicago back in aught two, blow this all out of the water.

Anyway, that is it for me this year.  I suppose I could go on and add predictions for the rest of the categories, but I have other things to do.  Oh hell, I don't have that much to do, here they are in quick succession.  Cinematography (Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, Life of Pi, Django, Skyfall); Art Direction (Lincoln, Les Miz, Life of Pi, Anna Karenina, Django); Film Editing (Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, Skyfall, Argo, Django); Costumes (Les Miz, Lincoln, Anna Karenina, Mirror Mirror, Snow White and the Huntsman); Make-up (Lincoln, The Hobbit, Looper); Sound Mixing (Les Miz, Zero Dark Thirty, Lincoln, Avengers, Skyfall); Sound Editing (Avengers, Dark Knight Rises, Skyfall, Looper, Zero Dark Thirty); Visual Effects (Avengers, Dark Knight Rises, The Hobbit, Life of Pi, Prometheus); Score (Lincoln, Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, Anna Karenina, Beasts of the Southern Wild); Song ("Suddenly" in Les Miz, "For You" in Act of Valor, "Skyfall" in Skyfall, "Everybody Needs a Friend" in Ted, "Touch of Sky" in Brave); Animated (Brave, Frankenweenie, Paranorman, Le Tableau, Rise of the Guardians); Doc (The Gatekeepers, How to Survive a Plague, This is Not a Film, Sugar Man, Chasing Ice); Foreign (Amour, The Intouchables, Royal Affair, No, Beyond the Hills).  So there.

I'll be back tomorrow, and let everyone know how well (or poorly) I did in my predictions.  I know you are all waiting with giddy anticipation.  See ya then kiddies.

Early Bird Oscar Predix

Some would say making Oscar predictions in June is doing things a bit on the early side, but having made my early bird predictions in May of last year, I am actually a bit on the late side.  And after all, they are called early bird predictions.  So get off my back people.  Okay, I digress.  Anyway, with the Oscar nominations, as of my posting of this post, just 204 days, 18 hours, 49 minutes and 33 seconds away (not that I am counting or anything) it is high time I get going with my predictions.  So without further ado (well, except for the picture below), here we go.

Best Picture

1. Lincoln

2. Django Unchained

3. The Master

4. Zero Dark Thirty

5. The Life of Pi

6. Les Miserables

7. Argo

8. Anna Karenina

9. Hyde Park on Hudson

10. Beasts of the Southern Wild

Now we never know these days just how many nominees will be included in the top prize, so I put these in order of probability.  I think as long as it is a hit, Spielberg's Lincoln is a sure bet, but then again this could be the Daniel Day-Lewis show and end up not getting recognition anywhere else.  As for Tarantino's Django Unchained, it is one of the most anticipated films of the year, but will Oscar respond the way they did with Inglourious Basterds a few years back.  We also have P.T. Anderson's The Master and Kathryn Bigelow's Bin Laden-hunting film Zero Dark Thirty, but again, who knows if they will gather steam with Oscar voters.  I think the real wild card here is Beasts of the Southern Wild.  This film could be this year's Winter's Bone and therefore could be much higher on the probability list.  For now though, I will keep it in the number ten spot.  So pretty much, what I am trying to say is there is no real clear cut frontrunner here.  As for other possibilities, we should not count out The Great Gatsby, Gravity, The Silver Linings Playbook, Killing Them Softly, The Gangster Squad, The Surrogate, The Trouble With the Curve, To Rome With Love or even The Hobbit.  The Dark Knight Rises, the sequel to a film that was very possibly responsible for Oscar upping their BP noms to ten, could be a factor too, but probably not.  There is also a relatively strong possibility of the Coen Brothers' latest, Inside Lwelyn Davis making the grade, but it is still up in the air whether it will be finished in time for a release this year.  So we will lay off that one until a release date gets confirmed.

Best Director

1. Steven Spielberg for Lincoln

2. Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained

3. Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master

4. Ang Lee for The Life of Pi

5. Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty

Wild Card: Ben Affleck for Argo

Again, there appears to be no real frontrunner here.  It all depends on what response the films get upon their eventual release.  Other possibilities include last year's winner, Tom Hooper for Les Miserables, as well as Baz Luhrmann for The Great Gatsby, David O. Russell for The Silver Linings Playbook, Roger Mitchell for Hyde Park on Hudson, Woody Allen for To Rome With Love, Joe Wright for Anna Karenina, David Cronenberg for Cosmopolis (yeah, right), or even Chris Nolan, Peter Jackson or Alfonso Cuarón.  Of course there is also the possibility of the brothers' Coen, if they release their film this year.

Best Actor

1. Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln

2. Bill Murray in Hyde Park on Hudson

3. Phillip Seymour Hoffman in The Master

4. Hugh Jackman in Les Miserables

5. John Hawkes in The Surrogate

Wild Card: Bradley Cooper in The Silver Linings Playbook

Well it looks as if we finally have a category with a clear cut frontrunner.  I mean really, Daniel Day-Lewis as Abraham Lincoln?  I could go out on a limb and claim that Day-Lewis, the best damn acting working in film today, will become the first man to win three Best Actor Oscars.  Poor Bill Murray though.  As FDR, it looked as if the very loved Murray would finally win his Oscar, and then DDL has to come along and play Lincoln.  Go figure.  Anyway, I think this is a pretty strong line-up here and am really hoping Hawkes gets in there as well.  As for the wild card, perhaps it is a bit to soon to hear the sentence, "Bradley Cooper, Oscar nominee" but hey, who knows.  Other possibilities include Ben Affleck in Argo (though the director spot may be a bit more likely), Clint Eastwood in The Trouble With the Curve (didn't he retire from acting?), Leonardo DiCaprio in The Great Gatsby (though supporting for another film is more likely), Jamie Foxx in Django Unchained, Brad Pitt in Killing Them Softly and Shia Lebeouf in Lawless.    Okay, that last one was just me making sure you were paying attention.

Best Actress

1. Keira Knightley in Anna Karenina

2. Helen Hunt in The Surrogate

3. Laura Linney in Hyde Park on Hudson

4. Viola Davis in Won't Back Down

5. Qvenzhane Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild

Wild Card: Nicole Kidman in The Paperboy

I don't think Knightley is as sure a bet as DDL above but she does seem to be a frontrunner here.  Laura Linney could end up going supporting with this role, so that could put Kidman in the top five after all.  Then again, some are saying Kidman's role is more suporting so who knows.  As for the current number five choice, most would claim that should be a wild card, but I gots a feeling people.  I gots me a feeling.  She would end up being the youngest nominee ever.  Other possibilities include Marion Cotillard in Rust and Bone, Barbra Streisand in The Guilt Trip, Maggie Smith in Quartet, Sandra Bullock in Gravity and Carey Mulligan in The Great Gatsby.  Other possible wild cards are Dakota Fanning in Effie and Kristen Wiig in Imogene.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Joaquin Phoenix in The Master

2. Leonardo DiCaprio in Django Unchained

3. Woody Harrelson in Seven Psychopaths

4. Russell Crowe in Les Miserables

5. Brian Cranston in Argo

Wild Card: Aaron Johnson in Anna Karenina

After we all saw that clip from Anderson's The Master, we all pretty much penciled in Phoenix for an Oscar.  Of course the film has yet to be seen, but then again it is a PTA film, so my hopes are pretty freakin' high.  This could of course be DiCaprio's year, a la Waltz's year with Inglourious Basterds.  As far as Harrelson goes, the role looks pretty juicy, but a similar sounding role had everyone pissed off when Albert Brooks was snubbed last year.  Other possibilities include the aforementioned Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained, Tom Courtenay in Quartet, George Clooney in Gravity, Tobey Maguire in The Great Gatsby, Justin Timberlake in The Trouble With the Curve and any of the Lincoln supporters, Tommy-Lee Jones, David Straitharn and Jared Harris.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Amy Adams in The Master

2. Sally Field in Lincoln

3. Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables

4. Annette Bening in Imogene

5. Samantha Barks in Les Miserables

Wild Card: Jennifer Lawrence in The Silver Linings Playbook

There is no clear frontrunner here.  I guess Hathaway has the "we love her" Gwyneth Paltrow/Sandra Bullock vote, but otherwise, not so much.  There could be a splitting of votes if screen newcomer Barks (the only main cast member transferring from Broadway) gets in.  Another thing that could skew the way is the possibility of either Linney or Kidman going supporting instead of lead.   Although I have not seen any of the performances in question yet, I would like to see Bening finally win her Oscar here.  As far as our wild card goes, she could sneak in here with the help of her popularity in The Hunger Games.  Other possibilities include Kerry Washington in Django Unchained, Vanessa Redgrave in A Song for Marion, Pauline Collins in Quartet, Jacki Weaver in The Silver Linings Playbook, Penélope Cruz in To Rome With Love and Olivia Williams as Eleanor Roosevelt in Hyde Park on Hudson.

Well that's it for my early bird Oscar predictions.  I suppose I could go on and talk about Original Screenplay (The Master, Hyde Park on Hudson, Django, Brave, Imogene, maybe Zero Dark Thirty) or Adapted Screenplay (Lincoln, Life of Pi, Les Miz, Anna Karenina, Silver Linings Playbook, maybe Argo or Gatsby) or Cinematography (Gravity, Django, Lincoln, Les Miz, Gatsby, maybe Dark Knight Rises) or Art Direction (Gatsby, Les Miz, Prometheus, The Hobbit, Moonrise Kingdom, maybe Dark Knight or Dark Shadows) or Film Editing (The Master, Django, Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miz, Argo, maybe Dark Knight or Gravity) or Costume Design (Anna Karenina, Lincoln, Great Expectations, Gatsby, Les Miz, maybe Snow White and the Huntsman or Hyde Park) or Original Score (Lincoln, Argo, Brave, Anna Karenina, The Hobbit, maybe Life of Pi or Snow White, or even Dark Knight) or Best Sound Mixing (Prometheus, Brave, Dark Knight, The Avengers, Les Miz, maybe The Hobbit or Snow White or Gravity) or Sound Editing (The Avengers, Dark Knight, Prometheus, Hunger Games, Zero Dark Thirty, maybe Brave or The Hobbit or Gravity) or Visual Effects (Prometheus, Dark Knight, The Hobbit, The Avengers, Spidey, maybe Life of Pi or Battleship or Gravity) or Make-Up (Lincoln, Les Miz, The Hobbit, Hyde Park, Looper, maybe Dark Knight) or Original Song (?????).  Well look at that, I guess I did go on and talk about those.  Anyway, that's it folks.  See you with newer, and probably better predictions a bit closer to the actual day.