Sunday, February 27, 2011

FINAL Oscar Predictions!!!

Well, it's that time again.  Oscar time.  And time to make my annual predictions.  I have gotten 19 out of 24 two years in a row (my all-time personal best) , so this year I am hoping to crack that seemingly impenetrable 20.  So without further ado, here are my picks.

Best Picture - The King's Speech

When people say it is all in the timing, they are not kidding.  If the Oscars were handed out in early January, my favourite of the bunch, The Social Network would have taken home the top prize, but now this BAFTA and Producer's Guild winner seems to be a certified lock.  Personally it is my least favourite of the bunch, but what are ya gonna do?  

Best Director - David Fincher for The Social Network

This is one of about six categories that are really bugging me (and making me go back and forth).  Perhaps it is just me not being able to let go of The Social Network getting ousted for BP, but I honestly think this will be one of those somewhat rare split years.  Just like when Ang Lee took home the director prize for Brokeback Mountain and yet the quite inferior Crash still won BP, the much superior The Social Network will at least be honoured here.  Of course this is still well up in the air, as Tom Hooper could still win this one. 

Best Actor - Colin Firth in The King's Speech

The man who should have won this award last year for the sublime A Single Man will finally get his due for a lesser film, though his performance was the one (and really only) great thing about The King's Speech.  My personal choice would have been the non-nominated Casey Affleck for the oft-maligned (though wrongly so) The Killer Inside Me.  If I were forced to choose between the actual nominees, I would go with Jesse Eisenberg, slightly over James Franco.

Best Actress - Natalie Portman in Black Swan

Portman, who is wonderful in nearly everything she does will finally win an Oscar for her batshitcrazy performance in Aronofsky's equally batshitcrazy movie.  I would still choose my darling, Michelle Williams over Portrman, but it is still a good choice.

Best Supporting Actor - Christian Bale in The Fighter

Can you believe this guy has never even been nominated before this year?  Crazy.  But the first time will be the charm here.  It would be a tough choice between Bale and John Hawkes for Winter's Bone, but I would pick Hawkes in the end (not that he has a prayer of taking down Bale).  Many do think he is an asshole and that could hurt his vote count, but he is probably so far ahead that those backlash votes (or anti-votes) will not even matter.

Best Supporting Actress - Melissa Leo in The Fighter

This is the one acting race that is not all sewn up, and hence, the one that could get away from me.  In all probability this is a three-way race between Leo, Helena Bonham-Carter and the new kid, Hailee Steinfeld, and it is anyone's guess which one will take home the Oscar.  If Bonham-Carter gets it (and this award is handed out early in the evening) you can expect to see a King's sweep (including Tom Hooper for Best Director).  Anyway, Jacki Weaver deserves the award and that would be quite the pleasant little surprise.

Best Original Screenplay - David Seidler for The King's Speech

Until just recently I was predicting The Kids Are All Right to win this one (and it still could of course), but I think this will be part of a King's rush.  Of course, one must also keep (in the back of their mind) a look out for Chris Nolan's Inception surprising here.

Best Adapted Screenplay - Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network

Hands down the best screenplay of the year, and probably the one place you will see the most deserving nominee taking home the actual prize.  Never underestimate the power of Toy Story 3 though.

And the rest...

Best Foreign Language Film - In A Better Wold (Denmark)

Best Documentary Feature - Exit Through the Gift Shop

Best Animated Film - Toy Story 3

Best Cinematography - True Grit

Best Art Direction - The King's Speech

Best Film Editing - The Social Network

Best Original Score - The King's Speech

Best Original Song - That thing by Randy Newman from Toy Story 3

Best Costume Design - Alice in Wonderland

Best Make-up - The Wolfman

Best Visual effects - Inception

Best Sound Editing - Inception

Best Sound Mixing - Inception

Best Animated Short - Day and Night

Best Live-Action Short - Na Wewe

Best Documentary Short - The Warriors of Qiugang

Well, that's it.  I think 20 may be in the cards this year.  We will see in a little over 20 hours.


Dan O. said...

As much as I would kill for Nolan to win for screenplay, the fact remains the Academy has an unreasonable hard on for The King’s Speech so original screenplay will probably go to that movie rather Inception, despite it should win. Check out my list and opinions when you can!

Kevyn Knox said...

I see you have Hailee Steinfeld winning instead of Melissa Leo. I was going back and forth until the end, but ended with Leo. Of course with that aforementioned unreasonable hard-on for everything King could put Ms. Bonham-Carter (Burton) in the top spot.