Independent Spirit Awards

I suppose I should be keeping my predicting skills somewhat limber for the upcoming Oscar season (a season that if I felt guilt would constitute a guilty pleasure for me) so here are my choices (personal and prediction-wise) for the upcoming Independent Spirit Awards, which will be handed out on 02/26/2011, exclusively (I am told) on IFC.

As for my thoughts on the nominations, I was rather surprised (though happily so) to see the love for the somewhat underrated Greenberg and the lack of love (except for First Feature and a supporting nod for Bill Murray, the best thing about the movie) for the somewhat overrated Get Low.  I was really glad to see the supporting nods for Winter's Bone. All the Oscar talk has been about Jennifer Lawrence as lead - and such talk is well-founded as she is great in the role - and it is nice to see Hawkes and Dickey getting a much needed push for eventual Oscar nods.  The strangest nomination though goes to Sam Jackson for his supporting role in Mother and Child.  Not that he wasn't good in the film (he is the coolest motherfucker around) but really didn't have that much to do in said film, and Ryan Ifans of Greenberg was left out in the proverbial cold because of it (assuming he was the sixth choice that is).  Otherwise, a great selection here (love seeing Michelle Williams in for Blue Valentine, though would have liked to  have seen her co-star Ryan Gosling in there as well) - and fantastic to see Uncle Boonmee get a nod (and a hopeful win).  As for my favourite in this whole bunch (Black Swan) I don't see it taking home any of the big hardware (cinematography is my only predix for it) but Aronofsky is well respected.  I suppose we will see.

Best Feature

127 Hours

Black Swan

Greenberg

The Kids Are All Right

Winter’s Bone

My choice: Black Swan

My prediction: Winter's Bone

Best director

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Danny Boyle, 127 Hours

Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right

Debra Granik, Winter’s Bone

John Cameron Mitchell, Rabbit Hole

My choice: Darren Aronofsky

My prediction: Debra Granik

Best first feature

Everything Strange and New

Get Low

The Last Exorcism

Night Catches Us

Tiny Furniture

My choice: Tiny Furniture

My prediction: Tiny Furniture

John Cassavetes Award 

(best feature with a budget of $500k or less)

Daddy Longlegs

The Exploding Girl

Lbs.

Lovers of Hate

Obsedila

My choice: I haven't seen any of these

My prediction: Daddy Longlegs

Best screenplay

Stuart Blumberg, Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right

Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini, Winter’s Bone

Nicole Holofcener, Please Give

David Lindsay-Abaire, Rabbit Hole

Todd Solondz, Life During Wartime

My choice: Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini

My prediction: Stuart Blumberg and Lisa Chodolenko

Best first screenplay

Diane Bell, Obselidia

Lena Dunham, Tiny Furniture

Nik Fackler, Lovely, Still

Bob Glaudini, Jack Goes Boating

Dana Adam Shapiro, Evan M. Wiener, Monogamy

My choice: Lena Dunham

My prediction: Lena Dunham

Best female lead

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Greta Gerwig, Greenberg

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone

Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

My choice: Michelle Williams

My prediction: Jennifer Lawrence

Best male lead

Ronald Bronstein, Daddy Longlegs

Aaron Eckhart, Rabbit Hole

James Franco, 127 Hours

John C. Reilly, Cyrus

Ben Stiller, Greenberg

My choice: Ben Stiller (but I have not seen 127 Hours yet)

My prediction: James Franco

Best supporting female

Ashley Bell, The Last Exorcism

Dale Dickey, Winter’s Bone

Allison Janney, Life During Wartime

Daphne Rubin-Vega, Jack Goes Boating

Naomi Watts, Mother and Child

My choice: Dale Dickey

My prediction: Dale Dickey

Best supporting male

John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone

Samuel L. Jackson, Mother and Child

Bill Murray, Get Low

John Ortiz, Jack Goes Boating

Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

My choice: John Hawkes

My prediction: John Hawkes

Best cinematography

Adam Kimmel, Never Let Me Go

Matthew Libatique, Black Swan

Jody Lee Lipes, Tiny Furniture

Michael McDonough, Winter’s Bone

Harris Savides, Greenberg

My choice: Matthew Libatique

My prediction: Matthew Libatique

Best documentary

Exit Through The Gift Shop

Marwencol

Restrepo

Sweetgrass

Thunder Soul

My choice: Is there a sixth choice?

My prediction: Exit Through the Gift Shop

Best foreign film

Kisses

Mademoiselle Chambon

Of Gods and Men

The King’s Speech

Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives

My choice: Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives

My prediction: Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives

Perhaps I went a bit Winter's Bone heavy there (I held back on screenplay and cinematography!) and Bening and her film are probably the safer bets (I think it comes down to these two films in most categories), but I have this feeling.....

Anyway, the real Oscar precursor hoopla begins later today with the National Board of Review's picks (followed by the NY and LA critics next week sometime).