10 Slot Best Pix a 12 Way Race

First there are the sure things:

1. The Social Network

2. The King's Speech

3. Inception

Then there are the almost sure things:

4. The Kids Are All Right

5. 127 Hours

6. Toy Story 3

Then there are the strong, but vulnerable contenders:

7. Winter's Bone

8. Black Swan

9. True Grit

Then there are the could be's:

10. The Town

11. The Fighter

12. Another Year

The only problem with the above scenario is there are only 10 slots for these 12 films to fit into, which means (in my opinion) the last three on this list are going to be fighting it out for that tenth spot.  Perhaps even the last four, but we will keep the Coens a bit safer on the list at least until their film opens.

There are the slim slim slim possibility of a surprise on this list - The Way Back, Blue Valentine, Rabbit Hole, Get Low or even the seemingly buzz-dead Secretariat are most likely for such a feat, but still very unlikely.  I personally would love to see Shutter Island or The Killer Inside Me sneak in, but who the Hell am I kidding?

For right now, I will stick with the top 10 for my predix (though, honestly, I think The Fighter and The Town could just as easily switch spots), but of course that is bound to change before Oscar time - especially after next week and the NYFCC, LAFCA and SAG awards and noms (but then these are more likely to effect the acting races than Best Pic).  In fact, next week (post the above award-givings) is when I will post my updated predictions for the four acting races and the director and screenplay categories (possibly the tech awards as well).