Just a day to go until we find out just how many of the below twenty-four predictions I will get right. My record is nineteen (accomplished in '08, '09 and just last year). I am reaching for twenty this year, but considering how things have gone (who did not think Affleck was a lock for a Director nomination?), this may not be that year. Then again, stay positive and all that, so on with the show. Here are my predictions for the Academy Awards.
Thanks to Ben Affleck's notorious snub in the Director category, Argo has become the far and away frontrunner - sapping the momentum away from former frontrunner, Lincoln. I mean, it isn't necessarily a lock - Lincoln could still win, and even Silver Linings could sneak in (not really) - but it is a pretty safe bet, so I am going with it. Still would love to see Django be the shock of the evening though. Maybe Zero Dark Thirty even. Yeah, right.
Best Director - Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
Yeah, yeah, Ben Affleck was snubbed. I think we all know that by now. I have even mentioned it three times already. Does he deserve the Oscar? No, he does not. Personally I am not a big fan of Argo (my least favourite Affleck-directed film), but I do see why everyone is up in arms and all that, since the film is up (and winning) for Best pic. But, since write-in votes will not be counted (according to Academy rules), this award is going to Mr. Spielberg - for the third fucking time. I really don't think he deserves it either, but that doesn't change my opinion on him winning. Sure, Lee, or even Russell could sneak in, or Haneke could surprise (if there is going to be a big upset, it is going to be here), but the safe money is on Spielberg. My personal nominees would have been Tarantino, Bigelow, PT Anderson, Bela Tarr and Cronenberg - but that's just me.
Best Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln
Personally my vote would go to the unwinnable Joaquin Phoenix, but there is no way in hell DDL is not winning his unprecedented third Best Actor Oscar. The actor, one of my faves, has been in better films than the achingly over-praised Lincoln, but still...yeah, he's winning.
Best Actress - Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook
Basically a two-way race between Lawrence and Chastain (my vote going to the latter), it could sensibly go either way, but in the end, I think the controversy over 0D30 will be too much, and J-Law will win. Then again, Emmanuelle Riva's name could be called out. No really, it could.
Best Supporting Actor - Robert De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook
This category, along with Adapted Screenplay, was the toughest for me to narrow down. Basically a three-way race between De Niro, Tommy-Lee Jones and Christoph Waltz. Most precognitors are going with Tommy-Lee, and up until last week, I had been as well. In the end though, I think the twenty-one year gap between nominations, and thirty-two since he last won, will give it to Bobby D - even if the role is less than Oscar worthy.
Best Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway in Les Misérables
I know, if I applied the same logic as I did just above, then Sally Field, who was last nominated (and won) twenty-eight years ago, should be my pick, but this is one of those so-called sure bets. You know, like the sure bet of Ben Affleck's Oscar nomination for Best Direc...oh, yeah...um...nevermind. But yeah, Annie is winning this one.
Best Adapted Screenplay - Chris Terrio for Argo
Damn, these are really tough this year. Both of these are legitimate three-way races. The WGA's went to Terrio for Adapted and Zero Dark Thirty's Mark Boal for Original, and those are probably the safe bets, but as you see, I only went with one of these. My heart still can not, not vote for QT. We'll see.
Best Animated Feature - Wreck-It Ralph
Best Documentary Feature - Searching for Sugar Man
Best Foreign-Language Film - Amour
More often than not, Animated Feature is a foregone conclusion. This year, not so much. Even with a Pixar nominee in the bunch. With that said, I am going with my personal favourite. Doc Feature is a bit of a foregone conclusion (everyone loves Sugar Man), but How To Survive a Plague, could sneak in. As far as those foregone conclusions go, Foreign-Language Film is the one to go with - and so is Amour.
As for the rest:
Best Cinematography - Life of PiBest Film Editing - Argo
Best Production Design - Anna Karenina
Best Costume Design - Anna Karenina
Best Hair and Make-Up - The Hobbit
Best Original Score - Life of Pi
Best Original Song - Skyfall
Best Sound Mixing - Les Misérables
Best Sound Editing - Zero Dark Thirty
Best Visual Effects - Life of Pi
Best Documentary Short - Open Heart
Best Short Film (Animation) - Paperman
Best Short Film (Live Action) - Curfew
So there ya go kiddies. Be back Monday with a round-up and letchya know if I reached my goal of twenty or not.