Sunday, June 24, 2012

Early Bird Oscar Predix

Some would say making Oscar predictions in June is doing things a bit on the early side, but having made my early bird predictions in May of last year, I am actually a bit on the late side.  And after all, they are called early bird predictions.  So get off my back people.  Okay, I digress.  Anyway, with the Oscar nominations, as of my posting of this post, just 204 days, 18 hours, 49 minutes and 33 seconds away (not that I am counting or anything) it is high time I get going with my predictions.  So without further ado (well, except for the picture below), here we go.

Best Picture
1. Lincoln
2. Django Unchained
3. The Master
4. Zero Dark Thirty
5. The Life of Pi
6. Les Miserables
7. Argo
8. Anna Karenina
9. Hyde Park on Hudson
10. Beasts of the Southern Wild

Now we never know these days just how many nominees will be included in the top prize, so I put these in order of probability.  I think as long as it is a hit, Spielberg's Lincoln is a sure bet, but then again this could be the Daniel Day-Lewis show and end up not getting recognition anywhere else.  As for Tarantino's Django Unchained, it is one of the most anticipated films of the year, but will Oscar respond the way they did with Inglourious Basterds a few years back.  We also have P.T. Anderson's The Master and Kathryn Bigelow's Bin Laden-hunting film Zero Dark Thirty, but again, who knows if they will gather steam with Oscar voters.  I think the real wild card here is Beasts of the Southern Wild.  This film could be this year's Winter's Bone and therefore could be much higher on the probability list.  For now though, I will keep it in the number ten spot.  So pretty much, what I am trying to say is there is no real clear cut frontrunner here.  As for other possibilities, we should not count out The Great Gatsby, Gravity, The Silver Linings Playbook, Killing Them Softly, The Gangster Squad, The Surrogate, The Trouble With the Curve, To Rome With Love or even The HobbitThe Dark Knight Rises, the sequel to a film that was very possibly responsible for Oscar upping their BP noms to ten, could be a factor too, but probably not.  There is also a relatively strong possibility of the Coen Brothers' latest, Inside Lwelyn Davis making the grade, but it is still up in the air whether it will be finished in time for a release this year.  So we will lay off that one until a release date gets confirmed.

Best Director
1. Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
2. Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained
3. Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master
4. Ang Lee for The Life of Pi
5. Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty

Wild Card: Ben Affleck for Argo

Again, there appears to be no real frontrunner here.  It all depends on what response the films get upon their eventual release.  Other possibilities include last year's winner, Tom Hooper for Les Miserables, as well as Baz Luhrmann for The Great Gatsby, David O. Russell for The Silver Linings Playbook, Roger Mitchell for Hyde Park on Hudson, Woody Allen for To Rome With Love, Joe Wright for Anna Karenina, David Cronenberg for Cosmopolis (yeah, right), or even Chris Nolan, Peter Jackson or Alfonso Cuarón.  Of course there is also the possibility of the brothers' Coen, if they release their film this year.

Best Actor
1. Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln
2. Bill Murray in Hyde Park on Hudson
3. Phillip Seymour Hoffman in The Master
4. Hugh Jackman in Les Miserables
5. John Hawkes in The Surrogate

Wild Card: Bradley Cooper in The Silver Linings Playbook

Well it looks as if we finally have a category with a clear cut frontrunner.  I mean really, Daniel Day-Lewis as Abraham Lincoln?  I could go out on a limb and claim that Day-Lewis, the best damn acting working in film today, will become the first man to win three Best Actor Oscars.  Poor Bill Murray though.  As FDR, it looked as if the very loved Murray would finally win his Oscar, and then DDL has to come along and play Lincoln.  Go figure.  Anyway, I think this is a pretty strong line-up here and am really hoping Hawkes gets in there as well.  As for the wild card, perhaps it is a bit to soon to hear the sentence, "Bradley Cooper, Oscar nominee" but hey, who knows.  Other possibilities include Ben Affleck in Argo (though the director spot may be a bit more likely), Clint Eastwood in The Trouble With the Curve (didn't he retire from acting?), Leonardo DiCaprio in The Great Gatsby (though supporting for another film is more likely), Jamie Foxx in Django Unchained, Brad Pitt in Killing Them Softly and Shia Lebeouf in Lawless.    Okay, that last one was just me making sure you were paying attention.

Best Actress
1. Keira Knightley in Anna Karenina
2. Helen Hunt in The Surrogate
3. Laura Linney in Hyde Park on Hudson
4. Viola Davis in Won't Back Down
5. Qvenzhane Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild

Wild Card: Nicole Kidman in The Paperboy

I don't think Knightley is as sure a bet as DDL above but she does seem to be a frontrunner here.  Laura Linney could end up going supporting with this role, so that could put Kidman in the top five after all.  Then again, some are saying Kidman's role is more suporting so who knows.  As for the current number five choice, most would claim that should be a wild card, but I gots a feeling people.  I gots me a feeling.  She would end up being the youngest nominee ever.  Other possibilities include Marion Cotillard in Rust and Bone, Barbra Streisand in The Guilt Trip, Maggie Smith in Quartet, Sandra Bullock in Gravity and Carey Mulligan in The Great Gatsby.  Other possible wild cards are Dakota Fanning in Effie and Kristen Wiig in Imogene.

Best Supporting Actor
1. Joaquin Phoenix in The Master
2. Leonardo DiCaprio in Django Unchained
3. Woody Harrelson in Seven Psychopaths
4. Russell Crowe in Les Miserables
5. Brian Cranston in Argo

Wild Card: Aaron Johnson in Anna Karenina

After we all saw that clip from Anderson's The Master, we all pretty much penciled in Phoenix for an Oscar.  Of course the film has yet to be seen, but then again it is a PTA film, so my hopes are pretty freakin' high.  This could of course be DiCaprio's year, a la Waltz's year with Inglourious Basterds.  As far as Harrelson goes, the role looks pretty juicy, but a similar sounding role had everyone pissed off when Albert Brooks was snubbed last year.  Other possibilities include the aforementioned Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained, Tom Courtenay in Quartet, George Clooney in Gravity, Tobey Maguire in The Great Gatsby, Justin Timberlake in The Trouble With the Curve and any of the Lincoln supporters, Tommy-Lee Jones, David Straitharn and Jared Harris.

Best Supporting Actress
1. Amy Adams in The Master
2. Sally Field in Lincoln
3. Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables
4. Annette Bening in Imogene
5. Samantha Barks in Les Miserables

Wild Card: Jennifer Lawrence in The Silver Linings Playbook

There is no clear frontrunner here.  I guess Hathaway has the "we love her" Gwyneth Paltrow/Sandra Bullock vote, but otherwise, not so much.  There could be a splitting of votes if screen newcomer Barks (the only main cast member transferring from Broadway) gets in.  Another thing that could skew the way is the possibility of either Linney or Kidman going supporting instead of lead.   Although I have not seen any of the performances in question yet, I would like to see Bening finally win her Oscar here.  As far as our wild card goes, she could sneak in here with the help of her popularity in The Hunger Games.  Other possibilities include Kerry Washington in Django Unchained, Vanessa Redgrave in A Song for Marion, Pauline Collins in Quartet, Jacki Weaver in The Silver Linings Playbook, Penélope Cruz in To Rome With Love and Olivia Williams as Eleanor Roosevelt in Hyde Park on Hudson.

Well that's it for my early bird Oscar predictions.  I suppose I could go on and talk about Original Screenplay (The Master, Hyde Park on Hudson, Django, Brave, Imogene, maybe Zero Dark Thirty) or Adapted Screenplay (Lincoln, Life of Pi, Les Miz, Anna Karenina, Silver Linings Playbook, maybe Argo or Gatsby) or Cinematography (Gravity, Django, Lincoln, Les Miz, Gatsby, maybe Dark Knight Rises) or Art Direction (Gatsby, Les Miz, Prometheus, The Hobbit, Moonrise Kingdom, maybe Dark Knight or Dark Shadows) or Film Editing (The Master, Django, Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miz, Argo, maybe Dark Knight or Gravity) or Costume Design (Anna Karenina, Lincoln, Great Expectations, Gatsby, Les Miz, maybe Snow White and the Huntsman or Hyde Park) or Original Score (Lincoln, Argo, Brave, Anna Karenina, The Hobbit, maybe Life of Pi or Snow White, or even Dark Knight) or Best Sound Mixing (Prometheus, Brave, Dark Knight, The Avengers, Les Miz, maybe The Hobbit or Snow White or Gravity) or Sound Editing (The Avengers, Dark Knight, Prometheus, Hunger Games, Zero Dark Thirty, maybe Brave or The Hobbit or Gravity) or Visual Effects (Prometheus, Dark Knight, The Hobbit, The Avengers, Spidey, maybe Life of Pi or Battleship or Gravity) or Make-Up (Lincoln, Les Miz, The Hobbit, Hyde Park, Looper, maybe Dark Knight) or Original Song (?????).  Well look at that, I guess I did go on and talk about those.  Anyway, that's it folks.  See you with newer, and probably better predictions a bit closer to the actual day.

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