Tuesday, January 24, 2012

The Oscar Nominations Are Here!!

So, after getting 89% of my predictions right two years ago and dipping slightly to 87% last year, I stumble down to a mere 82% with this morning's announcement.  Ouch.  Overall though, I suppose that isn't terrible - or is it?  Anyway, the categories break down as such: Best Picture I went 8 for 9.  Since we had no idea how many nods there were going to be, I just listed ten in order of probability.  My first eight choices, in order of probability, The Artist, The Descendants, Midnight in Paris, Hugo, The Help, Moneyball, The Tree of Life and War Horse were all nominated. My number nine choice, The Ides of March was replaced with Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.  Which is an extra bane upon my existence since I was hoping to avoid having to see the damned film, but now, due to my having to see all the nominees each year, will have to endure the beast sometime between now and February 26th.  I guess you can sense my high hopes about the whole thing.  Anyway, I digress.

I actually aced Best Director and am very glad to see some Malick love slip in there (in picture AND director).  I ended up going 4 for 5 in all four acting categories.  My Best Actor prediction of Michael Fassbender was replaced with the (somewhat) surprising nod for A Better Life's Demi├ín Bichir ( a film I still need to see).  Perhaps the Academy was scared off by the size of his.....anyway, I digress once again.  Best Actress was marred by my choice of Charlize Theron (which was more than a bit scratchy anyway) but she was replaced by Rooney Mara for The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, which was a welcome surprise.  Her performance is my personal favourite of the five nominees, so her (somewhat) surprise nomination was a welcome announcement indeed.

In the supporting categories, my prediction of Shailene Woodley was replaced by Janet McTeer for Albert Nobbs.  This was not really a surprise since McTeer had been a likely dark horse.  I did predict Melissa McCarthy's nod correctly - even though I absolutely loathed Bridesmaids (easily one of the worst films of last year).  In Supporting Actor I did not predict Max von Sydow's nod.  I figured he might sneak in but I figured he would replace my choice of Nick Nolte (how many predicted that one correctly!?) not Albert Brooks.  Seriously, Brooks' performance in the criminally overlooked Drive was the frontrunner back in December and even after he lost frontrunner status to Christopher Plummer, he was still considered, pretty much across the board, as a lock for a nomination.  Egad!

The last two categories I predicted, the screenplays, was where my weakest spot showed itself.  Granted I pulled off a 4 out of 5 in Adapted Screenplay - my choice of The Help was (thankfully) replaced by The Ides of March - but in Original I went just 3 for 5 - my picks of Win Win and Young Adult were replaced with Margin Call and my dark horse candidate, A Separation.  As far as the technical stuff goes, I did not post any of my predictions for these but judging from what I thought would be nominated, these would have kept by lackluster 82% winning percentage pretty much intact.  Ah well.  Anyway, now we can go on with other things in the cinematic world and ignore these things until the end of February when, as is tradition I suppose, I will make my final Oscar Predictions the night before the ceremony.  A full list of the nominees can be found here.

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