Oscar Nomination Predix

It is probably a foolish endeavor taken on by fools, and perhaps it is a seen as a lesser-than-respectable thing for a cinephile to do, but here we go anyway.  And remember, I have placed a few surprises amongst my predictions, just to keep everything fresh.

Best Picture

• Black Swan
• The Fighter
• Inception
• The Kids Are All Right
• The King's Speech
• The Social Network
• The Town
• Toy Story 3
• True Grit
• Winter's Bone

 127 Hours has been on my potential list for a long long time now, but here, at the proverbial last minute, I drop it in place of The Town.  Of course one could conceivably see an even bigger surprise with Another Year sneaking in, in place of True Grit or The Town.  Overall it is pretty much an eleven dog race here (twelve if one still counts Another Year) so if I am wrong I will not be THAT wrong.  Then again, not many people saw The Blind Side coming last year, but there it was anyway.

Best Director

• Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
• David Fincher (The Social Network)
• Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
• Christopher Nolan (Inception)
• David O. Russell (The Fighter)

A surprise here could come in the form of either Mike Leigh or Lisa Cholodenko, but these seem to be the final five in pretty much every precursor and/or prediction charts, and I see no reason to disagree.

Best Actor

• Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
• Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
• Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
• James Franco (127 Hours)
• Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter)

The big early buzz was on Robert Duvall for Get Low, but since then, such buzz has pretty much died out, even though most are still predicting his nomination.  I on the other hand think Wahlberg will coast in on a big Fighter wave that will surely get three other acting nominations come Tuesday morning.  That and the fact that I love surprises (sadly not very prevalent any more at The Oscars) make me put Wahlberg up there.  Then again, if Wahlberg can sneak in there it could be in place of Bridges and not Duvall.  Of course we should not count out Javiar Bardem in Biutiful.  It had a tiny window of an opening, but he is well-liked.  Also, I would love to see Ryan Gosling pull off a nod here for Blue Valentine, but he looks to be the eigth man in a five man race.

Best Actress

• Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
• Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
• Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
• Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
• Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

In a last minute switcharoo, I took Lesley Manville off of the list and replace her with my darling Michelle.  This is a pretty daring choice I think, since this has been a five woman race (including Manville) since long ago, but I just do not feel right leaving Ms. Williams off the list.

Best Supporting Actor

• Christian Bale (The Fighter)
• Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)
• Jeremy Renner (The Town)
• Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
• Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)

The most possible spoilers here would be Bill Murray or John Hawks (I would loooove to see that one happen), but one could well imagine a nod for Matt Damon in True Grit as well.  A bigger surprise would be Michael Douglas for Wall Street, but it could happen.  The biggest vulnerables are Renner and/or Ruffalo.

Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams (The Fighter)
• Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)
• Mila Kunis (Black Swan)
• Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
• Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)

Jacki Weaver had been an early buzz worthy choice here, but she seems to have fallen to the wayside to be replaced by Kunis.  Dianne Wiest is another early buzzee that may seem out of it now, but either of these actresses could pop back in in place of Kunis or Steinfeld.  Of course, since Steinfeld is actually the lead in True Grit, she could get a surprise nod for the lead category - where she should really be, making room here for Wiest or Weaver, or even perhaps Barbara Hershey.

Best Original Screenplay

• Another Year
• The Fighter
• Inception
• The Kids Are All Right
• The King's Speech

The only other real possibility is Black Swan, but it may be perceived more as a "director picture", making room for Mike Leigh to sneak in. Plus, I don't really see a perfect ten for ten correlation between Pic and the two screenplay categories.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Social Network
• The Town
• Toy Story 3
• True Grit
• Winter's Bone

As I said above, I don't really see a perfect ten for ten correlation between Pic and the two screenplay categories, so a film like The Ghost Writer could pop in here, as could 127 Hours (which may end up being a BP nominee anyway) or even, in a bigger surprise, a film like Barney's Version could really surprise.

Best Cinematography

• 127 Hours
• Black Swan
• Inception
• The Social Network
• True Grit

Best Art Direction

• Alice in Wonderland
• Inception
• The King's Speech
• Shutter Island
• True Grit

Best Film Editing

• Black Swan
• The Fighter
• Inception
• The Social Network
• Shutter Island

Best Costume Design

• Alice in Wonderland
• Black Swan
• The King's Speech
• The Tempest
• True Grit

Best Make-Up

• Alice in Wonderland
• The Fighter
• The Wolfman

Best Sound Mixing

• Inception
• Iron Man 2
• The Town
• Toy Story 3
• True Grit

Best Sound Editing

• 127 Hours
• Inception
• Iron Man 2
• Toy Story 3
• True Grit

Best Visual Effects

• Alice in Wonderland
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
• Inception 
• Iron Man 2
• Tron

Best Original Score

• The Ghost Writer
• Inception
• The King's Speech
• The Social Network
• The Tempest

Best Original Song

• Burlesque
• Country Strong
• Tangled
• Toy Story 3
• Waiting for Superman

Best Foreign-Language Film

• Biutiful (Mexico)
• Dogtooth (Greece)
• Even the Rain (Spain)
• Incendies (Canada)
• In a Better World (Denmark)

Best Animated Feature

• The Illusionist
• Tangled
• Toy Story 3

Best Documentary Feature

• Exit Through teh Gift Shop
• Inside Job
• Precious Life
• Restrepo
• Waiting for Superman

Best Documentary Short

• Born Sweet
• Killing in the Name
• Living for 32
• Strangers No More
• The Warriors of Qiugang

Best Animated Short

• The Cow Who Wanted to Be a Hamburger
• Day & Night
• Gruffalo
• Let's Pollute
• The Silence Beneath the Bark

Best Live Action Short

• Ana's Playground
• God of Love
• Little Children, Big Words
• Seeds of the Fall
• The Six Dollar Fifty Man

If all goes according to the above plan, then Inception will lead the nominations with 10, followed by The Fighter and True Grit with 9 each and The Social Network with just 8.  Being the frontrunner, one would expect more out of The Social Network.  Ah well, perhaps I am just banging my head against  the wall, as the young Ms. Reynolds is doing with and Oscar itself  (though against walnuts and not the wall) in the screenshot below, courtesy of Frank Tashlin and the fun little film, Susan Slept Here.  We will see Tuesday morning if my head-banging worked.